Errol Louis: The race for City Hall has only just begun
Posted By: Team Thompson on 05-24-09
Over at the Daily News, Errol Louis writes that while Mike Bloomberg has already poured millions of dollars into this race, the Mayor is vulnerable to a strong challenge from Bill Thompson:
The biggest misconception about this year's citywide elections is that Mayor Bloomberg has a third term all sewn up. Don't believe the hype.
Louis takes a hard look at some recent polling data which indicates that Mike Bloomberg’s message is not resonating with New York voters:
In February, before the ad blitz began, a poll by Marist College found that Bloomberg would win a hypothetical matchup against Democratic rival Bill Thompson, the city controller, by 53% to 36%.
But a May sample by the same organization shows the race essentially unchanged, with Bloomberg favored over Thompson by 51% to 33%.
That has set off a buzz among political insiders. A $15 million ad buy is supposed to move the poll numbers, particularly for an eight-year incumbent.
Everybody heard Bloomberg's campaign message - you couldn't avoid those TV ads and glossy color booklets - but the polls suggest New Yorkers aren't buying it.
"The electorate now divides over whether Mayor Michael Bloomberg deserves to be re-elected," Marist pollster Lee Miringoff said in a written summary of his findings. "Forty-seven percent say that he should receive a third term while 48% say, 'No.'"
That, too, is bad news for Bloomberg, whose handlers have tried to downplay popular resentment over the way he overturned the term limits law, which voters twice approved by referendum.
Miringoff's poll also found voters not particularly supportive of the mayor when it comes to education, the issue on which Bloomberg has staked his political reputation.
While a majority of New Yorkers like the job he's done on the schools, 60% of registered voters also say control should be taken from City Hall and turned over to an advisory panel - a stinging rebuke to Bloomberg at a crucial moment in his battle to retain power over the schools.
And it doesn't take a poll to show that New Yorkers are considerably less enamored than before of the mayor's Wall Street billions - corporate titans don't shine quite like they used to in America - at a moment when many seek sympathetic leaders who personally understand what struggling families are going through.
You can read the full article here.
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